Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 129.699328 154.525637 184.558861 224.122533 275.721388 3.419713e+02 4.355733e+02
2025-03-23 104.966181 136.062566 178.372636 242.230039 340.159423 4.922167e+02 7.637009e+02
2025-03-30 86.677134 118.778812 166.076218 244.759105 381.302229 6.293110e+02 1.177834e+03
2025-04-06 75.969394 108.821009 160.461508 253.763058 434.581288 8.161433e+02 1.874347e+03
2025-04-13 65.972695 97.562983 149.629986 249.764727 461.523149 9.683423e+02 2.701734e+03
2025-04-20 62.067674 95.077257 152.450863 271.052334 549.699401 1.333678e+03 4.959252e+03
2025-04-27 58.373017 92.161861 153.672126 289.354755 641.301723 1.807160e+03 9.474669e+03
2025-05-04 54.760279 88.719639 153.067887 303.456981 731.089188 2.398013e+03 1.900534e+04
2025-05-11 51.127541 84.644909 150.348675 311.807929 810.583911 3.086215e+03 4.003065e+04
2025-05-18 47.515855 80.082177 145.753710 314.175914 873.849301 3.835001e+03 8.929132e+04
2025-05-25 43.825905 74.891479 138.936104 308.854984 908.225187 4.514772e+03 2.021040e+05
2025-06-01 40.282697 69.584697 131.052660 298.609273 919.166593 5.090144e+03 4.753185e+05
2025-06-08 36.882201 64.350703 122.911341 286.660359 922.190430 5.697941e+03 1.480041e+06
2025-06-15 36.233053 64.659823 127.533527 314.037808 1124.002800 9.274263e+03 NaN
2025-06-22 34.306038 62.063641 124.855012 318.123853 1221.228689 1.245370e+04 NaN
2025-06-29 32.999597 60.638282 124.799872 331.012198 1384.058185 1.880851e+04 NaN
2025-07-06 30.978628 57.438357 119.792184 325.364328 1433.332160 2.364343e+04 NaN
2025-07-13 30.623106 57.886091 124.256580 355.718685 1767.483054 4.877566e+04 NaN
2025-07-20 30.049371 57.768669 127.216913 382.044944 2130.895622 1.088297e+05 NaN
2025-07-27 29.267255 57.078007 128.493029 402.470413 2498.211677 2.655952e+05 NaN
2025-08-03 28.271858 55.777036 127.832562 414.622393 2823.615081 6.992994e+05 NaN
2025-08-10 27.108562 53.959623 125.398722 418.075761 3071.518595 1.964525e+06 NaN
2025-08-17 25.750002 51.549112 120.878568 410.320682 3172.232653 4.859877e+06 NaN